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A diptych displaying a crow over a vernal pool and an equation expressing the rate of temperature increase from microbial activity as the planet warms. The vernal pool is in Concord MA near where I live. After the winter ice melted the grass was bright green. Its wetlands like these that are emitting substantial amounts of methane, a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2. As the permafrost and tundra in northern regions warm as well as the overall planet, microbial activity is releasing more methane exceeding other sources such as fossil fuels. Feedback loops from natural sources such as wetlands increase the risk of tipping points difficult to reverse.

The equation uses the Q10 temperature coefficient formula to express the rate of a biological process such as methane increases for every 10 degrees celsius in temperature.

R (T): The methane production rate at the new temperature.
R (ref): The production rate at a known reference temperature (often 20 degrees celsius).
Q (10): The factor by which the rate increases (for methanogens, this is typically between 2 and 4).
T: The current temperature of the pond sediment.
T (ref): The reference temperature.

Note there are also positive tipping points that represent feedback loops that will mitigate precipitous climate change. These include EV vehicles are becoming less expensive than gas powered cars, and solar and wind energy are now less expensive than fossil fuel energy sources. Once renewable energy is less expensive it will exponentially reduce emissions from fossil fuels.

The question is which tipping points will happen first?